This game was a challenge for me to get a solid grasp on. The way Alex Smith showed up last Saturday made me a believer in the Niners passing game and will be able to do enough to keep the Giants defense honest. The Giants front four has been dominant the past month, with the return of Osi Umenyiora. They have been able to apply enough pressure with the front four, allowing the Giants the ability to drop linebackers into coverage to help their beleaguered secondary. Alex Smith is going to be a huge factor on Sunday. He will need to make the throws and keep Vernon Davis involved. The 49ers must spread the ball around keep the Giants honest and allow the Vernon Davis to make plays. The Giants are going to key on Davis after a huge performance the week before against the Saints.
The 49er offensive line must be dominant against the front four of the Giants. If they can protect Alex Smith and give him time to make the throws, they will be able to attack the weakness of the Giants defense. This will also allow Frank Gore the ability have running room, which is huge key for the 49ers to win. The 49ers must run the ball and keep Eli Manning and the high-powered Giants offense on the sidelines.
Running the football will be a key for the Giants to win as well. The 49ers didn’t allow a 100-yard rushing performance or a rushing touchdown until week 16, when Patrick Willis was hurt. The 49er secondary has been the weakest part of the defense but has shown the ability to make a big play when they it mattered most. The 49ers must be able to apply enough pressure with the front four with Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis applying extra pressure on the blitz, which must get to Eli Manning. Allowing Eli time to find Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham, who have been huge all season for the Giants, is going to be pivotal if the 49ers want to win this game. The ability of the Giants receiver to make huge catches and take a short passes and turn them into 80 yards touchdown has been their trademark all season. Combine that with a running game with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs that has been reinvigorated the past few weeks, the Giants offense has become dynamic and will be a key for victory. Whichever side can win the battle of Eli and the receivers versus the 49er secondary, will win this game.
This game will come down to two things in my mind, which defense can get pressure, specifically with the front four and the second being, which team can make huge defensive or special teams play to change the momentum.
I like the Giants front four more than the 49ers but by a small margin. However, the 49ers special teams are far and away superior and will be a difference maker in this game. The ability of Andy Lee and Ted Ginn to change field position will be a huge factor. It will give the 49er offense a short field and force Eli and the Giant offense to start deep in their own territory all game long.
While I am not feeling super confident in this pick, I think the 49ers do just enough to pull this game out. I think the 49ers defense makes a big play when they need it most and Frank Gore goes over the century mark with 2 touchdowns.
49ers 33 Giants 29