Fantasy and Reality

I know, its last minute but I figured the NFL’s biggest game deserved a little attention from me as well. America has been beaten over the head for the last two weeks with stats and analysis on the big game. I will buck that trend and give you two simple reasons the Giants get Eli his second ring in the house that Peyton built.

The Patriots biggest weakness is their secondary. While it has been improving over the last few weeks of the season and into the playoffs, the Giants passing game is by far the best they have seen and will have Julian Edelman on Mario Manningham. Julian Edelman for those who don’t know is a wide receiver on the Patriots roster. Manningham, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks have been torching other teams secondaries all season and will have no issue doing the same thing to New England.

The front four of the Giants have been dominant as soon as Osi Umenyora returned from injury. They have the best front four in football. They way to beat the Patriots is to get to Tom Brady and hit him. He will become very familiar with the Giants front four and will find it hard to get the ball to his playmakers.

Tom Brady is the second best quarterback ever behind Joe Montana and will keep the Pats close. The Giants will get a late score and edge out the Patriots.

Giants 34 Patriots 31

For the betting public:

3 points have decided every Patriot Super Bowl. If your looking for a long shot MVP to jump on look at Victor Cruz who will have a huge day and Jason Pierre Paul who will be hanging onto Tom Brady all day. 10/1 and 20/1 respectively.

With the last big free agent piece finally signing and baseball quickly approaching I decided to take a look at some of the off season moves figure out what they mean going forward.

The Winners

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder

Most would think the teams would be the winners in the scenario and yes they made out by signing two talented power hitters to long term deals, but the Albert and Prince did one of the smartest things they could do, sign in the American League. As a player gets older athletic ability and mobility fades, and in the case of Fielder, his defensive ability was already in question. Both of these guys signed mega deals that will take them late into their careers. The ability of both guys to not only transfer into full time designated hitters as they get older, but also the ability to dh every 5^th day and save some wear and tear on their bodies will dramatically effect the second half of their contracts and help these guys remain superstars.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

            Not only did the Halo’s improve a position immensely that was filled nicely by Mark Trumbo by signing Albert Pujols, but also filled a rotation spot that gives the Angels one of the best and deepest rotations in baseball. In the signing of CJ Wilson, they added a front of the rotation starter who has been to the World Series each of the past two years. He has dynamite stuff, post season experience and success that will help as the Halo’s make a legitimate run to the World Series. CJ Wilson is coming to Anaheim from Texas, which keeps him pitching in the American League West, where he has already shown he can be dominant.

The Angels will feature a staff of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, CJ Wilson, and Ervin Santana, with Jerome Williams penciled in to the number 5 spot. They have 3 legit number one starters in Weaver, Haren, and Wilson, all of whom have been number one starters. Almost every day the Angels pitcher should be better than who their opponent is running out there and with exception of maybe the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, and Wilson’s former team Texas Rangers, who filled his spot nicely with Yu Darvish.

Texas Rangers

            In the signing of Yu Darvish, the Rangers signed the best free agent pitcher behind CJ Wilson. The Rangers paid handsomely to sign the 6’5” Darvish. They paid 51 million to talk to him, which went to Darvish’s former club in Japan. They locked up Darvish with a 6-year deal that will pay him 56 million. A lot of people might point to Dice-K or Hideo Nomo as the precursor to Darvish, however Darvish has a 6 foot 5 frame that is imposing on hitters, is younger than Dice-K when he made the switch, and numbers wise has been much more dominant. The ability to work with Mike Maddux also is a huge positive for Darvish. Maddux has a track record of turning out quality pitching. Darvish has 20 win potential and is a key factor if The Rangers want to make another run at the American League crown.

Detroit Tigers

Locking up Prince Fielder, gives the Tigers another stellar bat to put in their lineup. The thought of having Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the 3-4 slots of their line up is mind-boggling. Assuming Victor Martinez fully recovers and returns to his All Star form, the Tigers will have a stellar 3-4-5. Justin Verlander should be able to make a legit run at 30 wins with this line up.

The only concern the Tigers will have to face is what they do defensively. They can put Prince at first and move Cabrera to third, but doing so will hurt them severely. Late in games Leyland will have to decide whether it is worth improving defensively by removing Cabrera or Fielder’s bat. This will become a bigger issue when V-Mart returns. They will be able to rotate the two players between first and DH duties.

The Losers

St Louis Cardinals

I didn’t want to put St Louis in this category because in the long term, this was the best thing the Cardinals could do. Albert Pujols leaving town will hurt in the short term, but signing a mid 30’s super star to a 10-year deal makes no sense for team not in a major market. Income produced from ticket sales, merchandise and concessions will see a drop off. St Louis is a huge baseball town and fans will still go to games and support their team, especially after winning the World Series. However they lost the best bat in their line up and the face of the franchise. Resigning an aging Lance Berkman who saw much better pitches thanks to Pujols’ protection in the line up is not the answer but should help in the short term. Getting Adam Wainwright back after missing all of last season due to injury is a huge upgrade to their pitching staff, who has the potential to be the best pitcher not only on his team but in the majors. They are going to have to piece production together to make up for Albert’s numbers. They signed Carlos Beltran to help in the process, but are asking a lot from a guy who spent much of his 2011 season going on and off of the DL.

In addition to Pujols, the Cardinals lost Tony Larussa who was pivotal in the Cardinal World Series runs in 2004, 2006 and 2011, winning in both 2006 and 2011. He knew how to get the most out of his guys and seemed to know when to make moves and when to sit back and let his team do the work. Dave Duncan leaving with Tony is going to hurt the Cardinals as much if not more than Larussa. He was the mastermind that gave life back to the careers of Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook and even Chris Carpenter who was a marginal pitcher before heading to St Louis.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants inability to make any moves this off-season is baffling. The Giants are in a quandary because many of their stars were heading towards free agency like Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval or will be very soon in the cases of Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain.  Giving a three-year deal for 17.5 million to Pablo Sandoval was a head scratcher. He has become a fan favorite in San Francisco and make a big contribution last season. However this was coming off a season in 2010 where has almost a non-factor in the Giants run to the World Series. The Giants are banking on Pablo not only staying in shape, but that he will hit for a 3oo average with 20-25 homers.

The Giants moved Jonothan Sanchez to Kansas City for Melkey Cabrerea who is an underrated out fielder who can hit and has shown flashes including playoff runs with Atlanta and the Yankees. But then adding Angel Pagan in exchange for Andres Torres only added another “speed guy” who is not really stealing bases or hitting for a very good average in New York for the Mets. Both of these guys are the same type of player with Pagan providing more speed and Cabrera adding more pop. Adding these guys to an outfield with a resigned Nate Schierholtz on a 1-year deal, Aubrey Huff, and Brandon Belt makes for a team that doesn’t seem to have a direction. In Melky, Angel and Nate the team seemingly got a little better defensively but will not be able to hit for much if any power. With Huff or Belt in the outfield, the defense will be downgraded immensely, but will provide much more pop into their lineup.

I don’t know if I am giving Brian Sabean too much leeway after 2010, but I am going to let the moves play out and see what happens. Getting Buster Posey back is a huge upgrade, but I think expecting an aging Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt who is young and has yet to prove anything is a big ask.

Side Note

In the most compelling, perplexing, and interesting trade I can remember for a long time, The Seattle Mariners moved Michael Pineda to the New York Yankees for Jesus Montero. The Yankees got a front of the rotation potential starter and Seattle, in Montero, get a power bat, which they desperately need. Montero is listed as a catcher, but as most scouts believe, he will have to become a full time DH.

The trade works out great for the Yankees. They can plug Pineda into the three or four slot depending on where they see Kuroda fitting into the rotation. Pineda should evolve into a high-end number two starter with huge strikeout potential. Ivan Nova will fill the number 3 spot in the rotation and give the Yankees a stellar rotation going forward. The trade also makes room at the DH position, which is clogged without Montero.

As for the Mariners, the trade will have to wait to be evaluated. While Montero’s power has tremendous upside most of his power is to opposite field, which would have played great in new Yankee Stadium. At Safeco, he will hit more a long doubles hitter than homer run hitter. He should hit for a solid average with good power numbers and improve a Seattle offense that had a very difficult time producing runs.

While listening to sports radio the other day an interesting question was posed. If you start a NBA franchise today, what player do you build your franchise. The hosts decided to take LeBron James out of the equation, both feeling that he was the clear cut favorite. There discussion came down to either Chris Paul or Dwight Howard. Based on these parameters i will start there. The key idea is to decide if you want to build around a guy who will have the ball around 80% of the time on offense vs a guy who can score, rebound and dominate on both ends of the court. Having a guy who controls the pace of the game, make other players better and be a floor leader is much more important to me that a guy who can score, rebound, and block shots. I feel like i can get a Sam Dalembert or Erick Dampier to block shots, rebound and control the paint. To find a Chris Paul is much harder to do. That said starting today i would choose Dwyane Wade over any player including Lebron James. D Wade has already won a championship. Granted it was with Shaq but D Wade carried that team in the finals, and had them one step away the year before with Lamar Odom and Caron Butler as his key weapons. I think Wade can lead a team, make players better and score at will with the game on the line. Wade is a close second to Kobe in key shots at the end of games and is right there with Steve Nash and Chris Paul distributing the ball. Some people may ask why the Heat are so terrible now then. The answer is in his teammates. He is working with some over the hill players, NBDLers, and rookies. If you put Wade in New Orleans or Toronto with Chris Bosh and they would be right there in there respective divisions.

MVP

If you would have asked me 2 weeks ago I would have said Marion Barber, no questions asked. He was dominant and putting up exceptional numbers. However another NFC east running back has stepped up and ran to the top of the MVP race. Clinton Portis is not only putting up awesome numbers but running well at key points and late in the game to preserve leads on the road none the less. If the Cowboys get back to running the ball Barber will get back into the race. Another player to watch is Marshawn Lynch, who is playing very well and helped the Bills get to 4-1.

Rookie of the Year

Offensive

Chris Johnson and Matt Forte are my pick right now. Both of these guys have given huge lifts to their team and helped their teams win games. Johnson is splitting carries which is hurting his numbers but has made plays when it was his turn to play and running well late in games. Jeff Fisher is trying to save Johnson for late in the season when they are pushing deep into the playoffs. Forte has been exceptional and has allowed the Kyle Orton and the Bears passing attack to be effective. Others to watch as the season goes are DeSean Jackson and Felix Jones who have big impacts on their teams.

Defensive

: Chris Horton is the leader in the Clubhouse. He has been nothing short of stellar. He has 3 interceptions which is near the top in the NFL not just rookies. He also has 18 tackles from the safety position. Jerrod Mayo and Keith Rivers are also putting up solid number from the linebacker spot.

Coach of the year

Jim Zorn has made a huge splash. The Redskins have found a coach that meshes well with his players both scheme and personality wise. He led them to victory over the Cowboys and Eagles on the road. He has this team poised to make noise in the tough NFC east.

Never draft teammates at the same position

With combinations like Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin it isvery tempting to take both players during a draft especially when they are the best players on the board. However this can lead to serious issues down the road. The biggest problem occurs when that team enters its bye week. You now have to replace to studs and the chance of getting the points are very small. Also if the Injury bug hits their quarterback their production will diminish also.
Running backs are safer to have from one team. In most cases they are both no high draft picks and you have one as a handcuff incase the other gets hurt. Such is true for teams that have Marion barber and Felix Jones or Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.

(images courtesy Getty images/AP Photo)

Avoid time splits

A team that has two or three running backs that could be tempting are situations to be avoided. Places like Seattle where Maurice Morris and Julius Jones look to share the load causes only problems. You will be forced to start one and hope that the player you started gets the carries and scores the touchdown. Also a situation like Cincinnati may look like a place where Rudi Johnson is the guy and maybe shares some time with Kenny Watson can and will be a time share. Also Chris Perry looks to be back in top form and should see a majority of the snaps on third down. The only way I draft a player in situations like these is if I can get them late in the draft and let them sit on my bench until a bye week or one player steps up and becomes the guy. Even then there are some other players with upside you can grab at the same time I’d rather have.