Archive for February, 2012

Contenders to be cutting down the nets in New Orleans

Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

 

With March quickly approaching and the NCAA Tournament right around the corner, I wanted to take a look at the contenders to be cutting down the nets in New Orleans. They are talented teams with great coaching who have made deep tournament runs before.

 

Kentucky

Kentucky is the odds on favorite to be cutting the nets down in New Orleans. They feature the favorite for National Player of the Year Anthony Davis who is likely going number one over all in July’s NBA draft. They also feature 5 NBA draft prospects with 4 of them being probable top 15 picks. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been exceptional this season and provides a lot to this Kentucky team. They are strong defensively and apply pressure to opposing teams. They have been beating teams by a significant margin all season and are the team all others must measure themselves by.

The one thing that can hurt Kentucky is their rotation is basically 6 guys and if foul trouble or injuries hit plague them in the tourney they can be beat. Their top 6 is the best in the country and has given Coach Calipari no reason for concern.

 

Syracuse

Syracuse is the closest team to Kentucky talent wise. They don’t feature the NBA prospects Kentucky has but they are 8 guys deep. Their best player and only high level NBA prospect, Dion Waiters comes off the bench.

They play a style that could give Kentucky trouble and an ideal matchup in New Orleans. In Fab Melo, Syracuse has a 7’4” shot blocker that changes shots and causes problems at the rim. He doesn’t have the defensive presence of Davis or the defensive stats but he allows Syracuse to extend their zone defense and get in the face of their opposition. Kentucky likes to drive and kick to shooters. If Syracuse can extend their zone and get in the face of Kentucky’s guards they will cause issues with the drive and kicks. Melo should also be able to deny Davis at the rim and avoid easy dunks.

Syracuse must be able to shoot the ball effectively to beat Kentucky. Kris Joesph, Dione Waiters, and Brandon Triche must hit from long distance and force Kentucky to extend its defense out. That will allow CJ Fair and Melo to provide scoring closer to the basket and lead to offensive rebounds.

 

Kansas

Kansas features a leading contender for National Player of the Year like Kentucky and could provide a tough out for Kentucky. Thomas Robinson is a 6’10” Forward who has played exceptional this season. He makes big plays when it matters most. Look no further than the 3-point play he made against Missouri, capping off a 19-point comeback. Combine Robinson with Tyshawn Taylor who has made significant strides this season. Taylor and Robinson provide a dynamic inside/outside game for Kansas. Bill Self surrounds these two with shooters, who find openings when opponents double Taylor and Robinson. Jeff Withey provides additional low post scoring for Kansas and takes some of the pressure off of Robinson.

I wonder how effective Robinson can be if Kentucky puts Davis on him. Robison has to use his strength to be effective. Taylor, Connor Teahan, Elijah Johnson must make shots from outside to keep the Kentucky defense honest and not allow the Kentucky defense to sag into the paint and double Robinson.

 

Duke/North Carolina

These two teams have been inconsistent this season and just as you start to think they are viable contenders they have a let down game and remind you why you question them.

UNC has high level NBA talent and when they play like they can, look like the best team in the country. Harrison Barnes is a dynamic guard who can make big shots. John Henson and Tyler Zeller are athletic bigs that will play at the next level. Kendall Marshall is the key to this team. He has to run the show for UNC, get them into their sets and keep feeding their scorers.

Duke on the other hand isn’t as stacked and has looked stellar at times. Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins must take and make shots for this team to win. The Plumlees are effective in the post but are not proficient enough scores to win games for Duke. Austin Rivers is the key to this squad. He has grown up a lot in his freshman season. He is learning to pick his spots and avoid the do it all guy he was in high school. He has shown he has the onions to take the shot with the game on the line. The three he made in Chapel Hill against UNC proved he has no fear. He needs to carry Duke and let his shooters make shots for Duke to make a run in the tournament.

The thing Duke and UNC have is coaches that know how to win and have done it before. Coach K and Roy Williams are smart coaches that know how to get the most out of their team. I wouldn’t be shocked to see either of these teams in New Orleans but I can’t see either cutting down the nets when it’s all said and done.

 

Michigan State

This iteration of the Spartans feels much like a traditional Tom Izzo team. They feature no top-level recruits or high level NBA talent but are deep and gutty. Lead by Draymond Green, the Spartans are winning huge games, playing hard and are fighting to get the last number one seed in the tournament. A strong performance in the Big 10 tournament should make that a reality. The Big 10 is deep this year and they will face strong opposition from Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio State. This team will be a tough out in the NCAA tournament. If they face Kentucky, I don’t think they will come out on the right side but they have been counted out all season and continue to win.

 

 

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Twolf Karaoke

Thursday, February 23rd, 2012

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Manny Ramirez: No brainer in Oakland

Tuesday, February 21st, 2012

The Oakland Athletics have signed Manny Ramirez to a one-year deal worth $500,000.  While a head case like Manny Ramirez might be off putting to some franchises and leave fans scratching their heads, this moves makes a ton of sense for the Oakland Athletics. The move provides the A’s a lot of flexibility and makes a lot of sense even as a small market team. One of three scenarios will play out in Oakland this season, with two of them providing a large return on investment.

Worst-case scenario, if Manny becomes a cancer in the locker room, can’t hit or is doing nothing positive for the team they can simply cut him and will not be affected in the big picture. However, if Manny starts the season on a tear the A’s will have two great options for him moving forward. They can either keep him in the middle of the order, riding out his hot hitting in a tough, but winnable division if things go right offensively. Or Manny’s hot hitting will garner him trade value and allow Oakland to move Manny to a contender for prospects.  The Oakland A’s have used their farm system to build up their big league club and moving Manny will only help something that is already a strength.

The A’s are franchise built on a well-stocked farm system and on potential. A marquee hitter will never go to Oakland through free agency. The lack of financial mobility and a big ballpark that favors pitchers are factors that turn away power hitters. They will never have the ability to make up for a bad signing like Boston and New York can do. So as a franchise, the Athletics must take risks on guys with upside potential. Manny fits in perfectly in this scenario. Manny is one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time and if he finds his groove in Oakland and even if he returns to a slightly diminished version of himself the A’s have a middle of the line up guy that will DH every day. They also just signed Yoenis Cespedes, who is reportedly a fan of Manny. Ramirez will provide a comfort factor for the Cuban making a drastic transition into the MLB. Any time you can help smooth the transition of a guy you want to become an important part of your team and be a middle of the line up guy you need to explore that.

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The Contenders for the Larry O’Brien Trophy

Friday, February 10th, 2012

As the Mid Point of the sprint that is the 2011-2012 NBA season approaches, three teams have set themselves apart as teams that will be hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy at the end of the season. They all have similar characteristics that make them elite. All three teams have at least one superstar who can pick the team up and carry them for stretches. They contain a young team that has the ability to make it through the condensed season yet have the playoff experience where age will not be an issue when the playoffs come. All three of these teams are built to win, added to their young core, and are extremely talented.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder


The Oklahoma City Thunder are a young and dynamic team loaded with talent. They have made tremendous strides the past three seasons. They made a huge leap last season when they not only made the playoffs as they did in 2009 but also made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals where they would lose to the eventual NBA champion Dallas Mavericks. Kevin Durant is playing like an MVP candidate and showing up in clutch moments for the Thunder. Russell Westbrook has been playing with more patience this season, which dramatically improves his game. If Westbrook can slow his pace and pick his spots to be a scorer more effectively, the Thunder’s chance of winning the NBA Title will be dramatically improved. More importantly James Harden has stepped up in a major way. He is providing a major lift off of the bench. He is the leader in the clubhouse for sixth man of the year and in a lot of analysts mind as well as mine, Harden should have been invited to Orlando this season. Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka provide a strong front line on the defensive end and make up for what they may lack on the defensive end. If Thabo Sefolosha, Daequan Cook, and Nick Collison can provide stability off the bench the Thunder should be waiting for whoever emerges out of the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. The Loss of Eric Maynor is a bigger one than most might think.

While they have a dynamic point guard in Russell Westbrook, Maynor provided a true point guard that could play in spots and settle a Thunder offense that can become erratic at times. Russell will need to prove in the playoffs that he can control his pace and not make bad decisions with the game on the line. The road to the NBA finals will not be an easy one. They will have to go through savvy veteran laden teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs who are full of not only experience but have Hall of Famers and ring holders.

 


Miami Heat

 

The Miami Heat were in the NBA Finals last season in the first year of the new “Big Three.” They improved the roster that they took to the NBA Finals last season. A fully healthy Udonis Haslem provides low post depth and a more traditional low post scorer. They also selected Norris Cole with the 28th overall selection in the 2011 NBA Draft, who has shown flashes of being a reliable point guard who can score the basketball and is a huge improvement on the Mike Bibby/Eddie House spot in the rotation. They also have the ability to bring Mike Miller or the newley acquired Shane Battier off the bench late in games and let either Dwyane or Lebron bring the ball up. Battier is a lock down defender and will prove very useful against teams with dynamic wing players in the playoffs. The Heats ability to spread the floor and add length, especially late in games is a huge plus.

My two biggest questions with the Heat revolve around their closer and consistent production from the low post. The Heat need to establish a hierarchy for late game situations. The power struggle between Lebron and Wade in late games must be solved before the playoffs start or all close games will a crapshoot. The Heat should allow Dwyane Wade to control the ball late in games. Letting Chris Bosh spot up on either side of the free throw line with Lebron running the baseline should give the Heat an open shot somewhere. Opponents will double someone and as Wade drives Lebron or more likely Bosh’s defender will rotate to double. If Wade can hit Bosh and Lebron is baseline on the same side, ideally Lebron will be able to get a lay up or Bosh will be open for a 15 foot jumper that he will hit more times than not.

Much like Oklahoma City, the Heat are not looking for huge offensive numbers from their low post, but rebounding and especially offensive rebounding is crucial. They must create extra possessions and start fast breaks to help this team to be productive.  While Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem are not defensive stars by any means they must be able to change shots and provide a defensive presence down low.

 

 

Chicago Bulls


Where Derrick Rose goes, the Bulls will go. He is the catalyst that drives this team and must play exceptional to make a title run. He is more than capable of doing this. The Bulls do not have that second option like Oklahoma City or Miami but have a stronger starting 5 and a bench that can provide a punch. Joakim Noah provides a defensive and rebounding force down low and does not require the ball to be effective. Carlos Boozer has evolved into more of a jump shooter as his career has advanced but has the ability to get you a bucket when you need one. Loul Deng has made a tremendous stride this season and was recognized by his peers with an All Star nod. Adding Rip Hamilton is a tremendous upgrade that is more than just on the court production. Not only does he provide scoring with his ability to move without the ball, but also his championship experience is very important for a team led by so many young players. He can keep the Bulls emotions in check and avoid peaks and valleys, which is pivotal in high-pressure playoff situations.

The Bulls have been battling injuries all season. While they have been finding new pieces that fit into their puzzle through the turmoil, when the playoffs they will need to remain healthy in order to remain a legitimate title contender. Richard Hamilton and Carlos Boozer must provide consistent scoring. The bench must also be productive on both ends of the court. Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson and CJ Watson must provide stability and scoring off the bench. Derrick Rose must be the MVP for this team, stay healthy and put this team on his back. This is a huge ask by the Bulls of Derrick Rose, but they don’t have much of a choice at this point.

 

Of the three contenders the Bulls are the most flawed. They rely on Derrick Rose for everything and if he has an off night they don’t have another guy they can go to that is at an elite level in the likes of Russell Westbrook or Dwyane Wade. The Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder will play for the Larry O’Brien trophy this season assuming they don’t have any catastrophic injuries.

 

I can’t talk about the NBA title contenders without mentioning the Los Angeles and Boston Celtics. Even though I don’t see it for either team. The Lakers had made three straight Finals appearances until last season, winning two of them. The Boston Celtics played the Lakers in two of those Finals appearances, winning one and losing the other in 7 games. They have veteran laden teams with guys who know how to win when it matters most. The versions of these teams will not hot a candle to the teams that appear when the playoffs start. They are just trying to get into the playoffs in the sprint and once the playoffs start they will turn it on. They are old flawed teams that are a shell of what they were in previous years but they know what it takes to make a title run and I cant say I would be shocked to see Kobe or Paul Pierce hoisting the trophy come seasons end.

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The Big Gronkowski gets down

Tuesday, February 7th, 2012

 

As hard as fan takes a loss like The New England Patriots took on Sunday, players must have the ability to move on. If you live and die with each game, a player will be mentally drained unable to focus when it matters most. If you ask Rob Gronkowski, this loss hurts and will provide motivation to work hard all off-season. Rodney Harrison said on NBC’s Super Bowl 46 Pregame coverage, that he is still affected by the loss in Super Bowl 42 four years ago. A two-week build up to the biggest game of your life has to put stress on any person. While not everyone will agree, Gronkowki felt the need to let loose after a long and tiring season.

New England Patriots tight end, Rob Gronkowski might get crushed for a post Super Bowl celebration, especially in the Boston Area. I will give Gronkowski a pass. I will not judge peoples way of releasing tension after a season of hard work and dedication. He spent it much the way any person in their early twenties would.

I came away from this story with two questions. Rob Gronkowski has a high ankle sprain that clearly limited him in Super Bowl 46, yet it was clearly feeling good enough to be out on the dance floor? I guess alcohol really does a lot for pain.

My other question is how would people react if you replace Rob Gronkowski with other athletes in a similar situation? Perception plays a huge role in fan and media reaction. Lebron James would get killed if a video surfaced like this of him. They would use the video as another sign of why he will never win. However it was Kevin Durant, people would point to the fact that KD is young, has time to win titles and use it as another reason to love Durant.

 

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LINcredible!!!

Tuesday, February 7th, 2012

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You cant spell Elite without ELI

Tuesday, February 7th, 2012

And with Eli Manning and the Giants hoisting the Lombardi trophy, another NFL season is in the books. The New York Giants were the better team in Indianapolis. The Giants biggest advantages showed up and paved their way to victory.

The Giants front four was imposing and kept Tom Brady out of rhythm all day. Jason Pierre Paul and Justin Tuck were impressive. The Giants wide receivers made the Patriots underwhelming secondary pay all day. These two building blocks should have the Giants in position next season to make another run. They are getting Prince Amukamara back from injury and should help the Giants secondary. If they can add a few complimentary pieces through the draft and free agency, the Giants along with the Packers should be favorites going into the 2012 NFL season.

As for the Patriots the future is not bleak for them either. They have serious needs to address in the off-season including a beleaguered secondary. But building around Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo is a good start. The Patriots need to get young and athletic in the secondary. New England will have another few runs with Tom Brady under center and they must take advantage of that.

The past few seasons has taught me the team that will win the Super Bowl isn’t necessarily the best team but the one that got hot at the right time. Having all your pieces healthy is a must. You also quarterback who can step up and make all the big throws at critical times. The Packers last season and the Giants this season were the hottest team going into the playoffs. They had confidence and a belief that they could not be beat.

 

Vegasinsider.com currently have futures posted for next season. The top 3 highest are

 

Packers 5/1

Saints 6/1

Patriots 7/1

 

Longshots I like (20/1 or more)

Giants 20/1

49ers 20/1

Bears 30/1 *if forte is back

Titans 50/1 *homer pick but kind of a sneaky one

Panthers 50/1



 

You could also place money on teams Peyton Manning could end up on. The odds will get dramatically worse depending on where he ends up.

 

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Your 2012 Super Bowl Champions…..

Saturday, February 4th, 2012

I know, its last minute but I figured the NFL’s biggest game deserved a little attention from me as well. America has been beaten over the head for the last two weeks with stats and analysis on the big game. I will buck that trend and give you two simple reasons the Giants get Eli his second ring in the house that Peyton built.

The Patriots biggest weakness is their secondary. While it has been improving over the last few weeks of the season and into the playoffs, the Giants passing game is by far the best they have seen and will have Julian Edelman on Mario Manningham. Julian Edelman for those who don’t know is a wide receiver on the Patriots roster. Manningham, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks have been torching other teams secondaries all season and will have no issue doing the same thing to New England.

The front four of the Giants have been dominant as soon as Osi Umenyora returned from injury. They have the best front four in football. They way to beat the Patriots is to get to Tom Brady and hit him. He will become very familiar with the Giants front four and will find it hard to get the ball to his playmakers.

Tom Brady is the second best quarterback ever behind Joe Montana and will keep the Pats close. The Giants will get a late score and edge out the Patriots.

 

Giants 34 Patriots 31

 

For the betting public:

3 points have decided every Patriot Super Bowl. If your looking for a long shot MVP to jump on look at Victor Cruz who will have a huge day and Jason Pierre Paul who will be hanging onto Tom Brady all day. 10/1 and 20/1 respectively.

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The Future of Peyton Manning

Friday, February 3rd, 2012

With a medically cleared Peyton Manning and rift that has occurred with Jim Irsay the writing on the wall for Peyton Manning to leave Indy. The number one pick is in the Colts hands and ready for Andrew Luck to be delivered. Peyton Manning is going to follow the likes of Joe Montana and Joe Namath as a face of the franchise to move on before the end of their career. The Colts will be releasing Peyton Manning before the 28 million dollar bonus is due, thus leaving Peyton a free agent and putting the ball in Peyton’s court.

Peyton is going to looking at a situation that will give him a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl. The number of teams Peyton can sign with that need a quarterback and give him a realistic shot at the Super Bowl is small group.  Peyton has made his money and is now only looking to add rings to his fingers.

 

Super Bowl contenders

San Francisco 49ers

Peyton Manning can step right in the 49er offense and take the team right back to NFC championship and farther. The 49ers defense is amongst the best in the league with a dynamic front four, a stud linebacker in Patrick Willis and a ball hawking secondary that makes big plays in the clutch. Peyton will be behind a solid offensive line that will give him a ton of protection, a running game that has proven to be powerful and dynamic weapons like Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, that will only improved with Peyton getting them the ball. Jim Harbaugh has the 49ers ready to win and Peyton is the piece that puts them over the top. A Peyton versus Eli rivalry could be year in and year out rivalry with a trip to the super bowl on the line for the next few seasons.

 

New York Jets

With the Jets, Peyton Manning could be the calming force in a locker room seemingly full of turmoil. The Jets have a strong defense with lockdown corners that will keep the Jets in all the games. Manning will have strong targets to get the ball to in Santonio Holmes, Dustin Keller and potentially Plaxico Burress coming back. He can hand the ball to Shonn Greene who will have a better season with season with Peyton under center. The idea of two Mannings in New York is exciting and will only fuel the rivalry. With Peyton in New York a Super Bowl featuring both teams from New York and two Mannings is a likely scenario.

Sharing a city with his brother Eli Manning and a division with Tom Brady are two signs that point to Peyton not signing with the Jets. Peyton being the ultimate competitor, this might intrigue him and motivate him. I never count Rex out.

 

Contenders with flaws

 

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins proved last year with questionable quarterback play, that they can be competitive. They have a improving defense with big play ability. He will have weapons on the offensive side of the ball in big play receiver Brandon Marshall and Reggie Bush who proved he could be an every down back. The Dolphins have one of the issues Manning would face in New York, being in the same division as Tom Brady on a team with seemingly less talent. The Dolphins also feature first year coach Joe Philbin, which could scar of Manning. The connection with Philbin could bring free agent Matt Flynn to town, which might make more sense for a team closer to the rebuilding phase as opposed to being a contender.

 

Tennessee Titans

What is a better way to stick it to your old team than playing with a division rival? The Tennessee Titans have great offensive line, talented receivers in Kenny Britt and Nate Washington. The ability to hand of to Chris Johnson, who should have a shot at returning to old form with defenses forced to not load the box and respect the passing game. The Titans also have a talented defense that can take the Titans deep in the playoffs with Manning under center. The Titans are in a very winnable division, which only helps their chance of luring him to Nashville. Peyton also attended the University of Tennessee, where his is revered for his time as a Volunteer.

 

Wildcards

 

New Orleans Saints

A native of New Orleans, Peyton could return to his home and play for the home team. While the Saints have had success ever since Drew Brees took over under center, including a Super Bowl victory, rumors are swirling that there is some issues with the contract extension.  Logic would dictate that Brees will be returning to New Orleans. However, if Peyton Manning is your fall back if there is some reason the Saints can’t lock up Brees. The Saints are built to win now and with Manning they will not skip a beat.

 

Dallas Cowboys

The Tony Romo era could come to a halt quickly if Peyton Manning comes to town. The Cowboys are loaded with talented players and the thought of Peyton Manning under center has to give Jerry Jones a tingly feeling all over. I never count Jerry Jones out of anything, much like his NBA counterpart in Dallas, Mark Cuban. Peyton Manning makes the Cowboys a favorite with Green Bay in the NFC. Manning could be a calming factor that provides stability and the idea of throwing to Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten has to be an exciting thought to Jerry and the Cowboys. The Cowboys could move Romo for a piece to help the secondary.

If I were in Peyton Manning’s shoes, my choice would be either the San Francisco 49ers or Tennessee Titans. The 49ers are in a division that should be locked up for the next few seasons, a conference that features an easier road to the Super Bowl and a team that is ready to win now. The 49ers made it to the NFC championship with Alex Smith under center and the difference between he and Peyton Manning is vast.

With the Tennessee Titans, the talent level isn’t as high as what the 49ers feature but as a competitor that chance to play the Colts twice a year and keep your former team out of the playoffs has to excite Manning. With Manning under center the Titans have the ability to make a serious run at a super bowl title. Only time will tell what the future has in store for Peyton Manning. He should be released early next week after the Super Bowl hoopla is over. What happens from then will shake out after the draft, during free agency.

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