Off Season:Winners and Losers

January 24th, 2012

With the last big free agent piece finally signing and baseball quickly approaching I decided to take a look at some of the off season moves figure out what they mean going forward.

 

The Winners

 

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder


Most would think the teams would be the winners in the scenario and yes they made out by signing two talented power hitters to long term deals, but the Albert and Prince did one of the smartest things they could do, sign in the American League. As a player gets older athletic ability and mobility fades, and in the case of Fielder, his defensive ability was already in question. Both of these guys signed mega deals that will take them late into their careers. The ability of both guys to not only transfer into full time designated hitters as they get older, but also the ability to dh every 5th day and save some wear and tear on their bodies will dramatically effect the second half of their contracts and help these guys remain superstars.

 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

            Not only did the Halo’s improve a position immensely that was filled nicely by Mark Trumbo by signing Albert Pujols, but also filled a rotation spot that gives the Angels one of the best and deepest rotations in baseball. In the signing of CJ Wilson, they added a front of the rotation starter who has been to the World Series each of the past two years. He has dynamite stuff, post season experience and success that will help as the Halo’s make a legitimate run to the World Series. CJ Wilson is coming to Anaheim from Texas, which keeps him pitching in the American League West, where he has already shown he can be dominant.

The Angels will feature a staff of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, CJ Wilson, and Ervin Santana, with Jerome Williams penciled in to the number 5 spot. They have 3 legit number one starters in Weaver, Haren, and Wilson, all of whom have been number one starters. Almost every day the Angels pitcher should be better than who their opponent is running out there and with exception of maybe the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, and Wilson’s former team Texas Rangers, who filled his spot nicely with Yu Darvish.

 

Texas Rangers

            In the signing of Yu Darvish, the Rangers signed the best free agent pitcher behind CJ Wilson. The Rangers paid handsomely to sign the 6’5” Darvish. They paid 51 million to talk to him, which went to Darvish’s former club in Japan. They locked up Darvish with a 6-year deal that will pay him 56 million. A lot of people might point to Dice-K or Hideo Nomo as the precursor to Darvish, however Darvish has a 6 foot 5 frame that is imposing on hitters, is younger than Dice-K when he made the switch, and numbers wise has been much more dominant. The ability to work with Mike Maddux also is a huge positive for Darvish. Maddux has a track record of turning out quality pitching. Darvish has 20 win potential and is a key factor if The Rangers want to make another run at the American League crown.

 

Detroit Tigers

Locking up Prince Fielder, gives the Tigers another stellar bat to put in their lineup. The thought of having Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the 3-4 slots of their line up is mind-boggling. Assuming Victor Martinez fully recovers and returns to his All Star form, the Tigers will have a stellar 3-4-5. Justin Verlander should be able to make a legit run at 30 wins with this line up.

The only concern the Tigers will have to face is what they do defensively. They can put Prince at first and move Cabrera to third, but doing so will hurt them severely. Late in games Leyland will have to decide whether it is worth improving defensively by removing Cabrera or Fielder’s bat. This will become a bigger issue when V-Mart returns. They will be able to rotate the two players between first and DH duties.

The Losers

 

St Louis Cardinals

I didn’t want to put St Louis in this category because in the long term, this was the best thing the Cardinals could do. Albert Pujols leaving town will hurt in the short term, but signing a mid 30’s super star to a 10-year deal makes no sense for team not in a major market. Income produced from ticket sales, merchandise and concessions will see a drop off. St Louis is a huge baseball town and fans will still go to games and support their team, especially after winning the World Series. However they lost the best bat in their line up and the face of the franchise. Resigning an aging Lance Berkman who saw much better pitches thanks to Pujols’ protection in the line up is not the answer but should help in the short term. Getting Adam Wainwright back after missing all of last season due to injury is a huge upgrade to their pitching staff, who has the potential to be the best pitcher not only on his team but in the majors. They are going to have to piece production together to make up for Albert’s numbers. They signed Carlos Beltran to help in the process, but are asking a lot from a guy who spent much of his 2011 season going on and off of the DL.

In addition to Pujols, the Cardinals lost Tony Larussa who was pivotal in the Cardinal World Series runs in 2004, 2006 and 2011, winning in both 2006 and 2011. He knew how to get the most out of his guys and seemed to know when to make moves and when to sit back and let his team do the work. Dave Duncan leaving with Tony is going to hurt the Cardinals as much if not more than Larussa. He was the mastermind that gave life back to the careers of Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook and even Chris Carpenter who was a marginal pitcher before heading to St Louis.

 

San Francisco Giants

The Giants inability to make any moves this off-season is baffling. The Giants are in a quandary because many of their stars were heading towards free agency like Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval or will be very soon in the cases of Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain.  Giving a three-year deal for 17.5 million to Pablo Sandoval was a head scratcher. He has become a fan favorite in San Francisco and make a big contribution last season. However this was coming off a season in 2010 where has almost a non-factor in the Giants run to the World Series. The Giants are banking on Pablo not only staying in shape, but that he will hit for a 3oo average with 20-25 homers.

The Giants moved Jonothan Sanchez to Kansas City for Melkey Cabrerea who is an underrated out fielder who can hit and has shown flashes including playoff runs with Atlanta and the Yankees. But then adding Angel Pagan in exchange for Andres Torres only added another “speed guy” who is not really stealing bases or hitting for a very good average in New York for the Mets. Both of these guys are the same type of player with Pagan providing more speed and Cabrera adding more pop. Adding these guys to an outfield with a resigned Nate Schierholtz on a 1-year deal, Aubrey Huff, and Brandon Belt makes for a team that doesn’t seem to have a direction. In Melky, Angel and Nate the team seemingly got a little better defensively but will not be able to hit for much if any power. With Huff or Belt in the outfield, the defense will be downgraded immensely, but will provide much more pop into their lineup.

I don’t know if I am giving Brian Sabean too much leeway after 2010, but I am going to let the moves play out and see what happens. Getting Buster Posey back is a huge upgrade, but I think expecting an aging Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt who is young and has yet to prove anything is a big ask.

 

Side Note

In the most compelling, perplexing, and interesting trade I can remember for a long time, The Seattle Mariners moved Michael Pineda to the New York Yankees for Jesus Montero. The Yankees got a front of the rotation potential starter and Seattle, in Montero, get a power bat, which they desperately need. Montero is listed as a catcher, but as most scouts believe, he will have to become a full time DH.

The trade works out great for the Yankees. They can plug Pineda into the three or four slot depending on where they see Kuroda fitting into the rotation. Pineda should evolve into a high-end number two starter with huge strikeout potential. Ivan Nova will fill the number 3 spot in the rotation and give the Yankees a stellar rotation going forward. The trade also makes room at the DH position, which is clogged without Montero.

As for the Mariners, the trade will have to wait to be evaluated. While Montero’s power has tremendous upside most of his power is to opposite field, which would have played great in new Yankee Stadium. At Safeco, he will hit more a long doubles hitter than homer run hitter. He should hit for a solid average with good power numbers and improve a Seattle offense that had a very difficult time producing runs.

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Special Teams blunders cost teams trip to Indy

January 23rd, 2012

I can only imagine how frustrated the 49ers and Ravens players must be right now. The idea of spending so much time working towards one goal and to have their seasons end the way they did. The frustration in their respective locker rooms is something I’m not going to try and imagine. I don’t want to place blame on any one player but three players had chances to make plays or avoid making bad ones and couldn’t come through.

In New England, the Ravens did not play up to the ability they had shown all season. The Patriots did a great job slowing down Ray Rice and putting the game in the hands of Joe Flacco. While Flacco did not have an amazing game by any means, he stepped up and made the throws when it mattered most. The pass he threw to Lee Evans was a prefect throw. Lee Evans had the ball in his hands, took two steps and just like the Ravens season, the ball slipped threw his fingertips. I’m not sure if he thought he had possession and let up a little or if Patriots cornerback Sterling Moore was able to get his hand on the perfect spot. Either way there is no excuse for not coming down with the football in that situation. If you want to earn the right to go to the biggest game, you have to make plays when it matters most.

Even with the drop, the Ravens could have kicked a field goal and forced overtime. Unfortunately for Baltimore, a 32-yard field goal was too much for Billy Cundiff to muster. He pushed the ball left and gave the Patriots the victory, When the Ravens were on their final, they mentioned all of Cundiff’s stats from 50 yards away or more, and I remember thinking I hope this game doesn’t come down to him making a field goal. Sure enough, the game was put on his foot and he was unable to come through.

In San Francisco, a team that had had the best special teams all season long were about to be plagued by mistakes. Kyle Williams was back to return a punt with the 49ers up 17-10 late in the fourth quarter, makes blunder number one. A punt that was landing short of Williams and looked clearly like he had no interest in picking up, yet he got close enough where an errant bounce skips off of his knee and gives possession to the Giants. Eli will lead his team to a score, with a short field culminating with Mario Manningham in the back of the end zone.  Fast forward to the overtime, with Kyle Williams back to return another punt. I don’t know if he was trying to make up for his blunder in the 4th quarter, but he picked up the punt and began to run up the field, and before he could take more than a few steps, the ball was stripped from his hands and the Giants recovered. If Ted Ginn is healthy, maybe this doesn’t happen, but you can play on hypotheticals.

I still believe I had the right teams, when I made my predictions,(AFC and NFC) and both teams had the ball late in the game with the chance to make a play, however inability to complete drives, lack off effectiveness from the running backs and costly errors hurt the chances of HarBowl. I’m curious to see what both the Ravens and 49ers do in the off-season to improve their respective teams for next season. I give a lot of credit to the Giants and Patriots. These teams made the plays when it mattered most and showed why they both have super bowl titles in recent seasons.

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NFC Championship Preview

January 19th, 2012

This game was a challenge for me to get a solid grasp on. The way Alex Smith showed up last Saturday made me a believer in the Niners passing game and will be able to do enough to keep the Giants defense honest. The Giants front four has been dominant the past month, with the return of Osi Umenyiora. They have been able to apply enough pressure with the front four, allowing the Giants the ability to drop linebackers into coverage to help their beleaguered secondary. Alex Smith is going to be a huge factor on Sunday. He will need to make the throws and keep Vernon Davis involved. The 49ers must spread the ball around keep the Giants honest and allow the Vernon Davis to make plays. The Giants are going to key on Davis after a huge performance the week before against the Saints.

The 49er offensive line must be dominant against the front four of the Giants. If they can protect Alex Smith and give him time to make the throws, they will be able to attack the weakness of the Giants defense. This will also allow Frank Gore the ability have running room, which is huge key for the 49ers to win. The 49ers must run the ball and keep Eli Manning and the high-powered Giants offense on the sidelines.

Running the football will be a key for the Giants to win as well.  The 49ers didn’t allow a 100-yard rushing performance or a rushing touchdown until week 16, when Patrick Willis was hurt. The 49er secondary has been the weakest part of the defense but has shown the ability to make a big play when they it mattered most. The 49ers must be able to apply enough pressure with the front four with Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis applying extra pressure on the blitz, which must get to Eli Manning. Allowing Eli time to find Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham, who have been huge all season for the Giants, is going to be pivotal if the 49ers want to win this game. The ability of the Giants receiver to make huge catches and take a short passes and turn them into 80 yards touchdown has been their trademark all season. Combine that with a running game with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs that has been reinvigorated the past few weeks, the Giants offense has become dynamic and will be a key for victory. Whichever side can win the battle of Eli and the receivers versus the 49er secondary, will win this game.

This game will come down to two things in my mind, which defense can get pressure, specifically with the front four and the second being, which team can make huge defensive or special teams play to change the momentum.

I like the Giants front four more than the 49ers but by a small margin. However, the 49ers special teams are far and away superior and will be a difference maker in this game. The ability of Andy Lee and Ted Ginn to change field position will be a huge factor. It will give the 49er offense a short field and force Eli and the Giant offense to start deep in their own territory all game long.

While I am not feeling super confident in this pick, I think the 49ers do just enough to pull this game out. I think the 49ers defense makes a big play when they need it most and Frank Gore goes over the century mark with 2 touchdowns.

 

49ers 33 Giants 29

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AFC Championship preview

January 19th, 2012

This game was just as hard to figure out for me as the NFC Championship game. At this point in the season, I normally have a strong grasp on the final four teams and know what to expect going into the title games. The Ravens are a team that will come out against team with less talent and shouldn’t be able to stay on the field with them, yet the Ravens look disinterested and allow them other team to hang around. However in games where the Ravens need to show up, like Pittsburg, they play like a championship contender and win, twice.

Flacco is the wild card against the Patriots. The Patriots, a team that has a struggeling secondary, and is at or near the bottom of all defensive statistical categories can and should be attacked through the air. If Torrey Smith can get open deep and Anquan Boldin can make plays across the middle of field, the Ravens will be able to attack the Patriots and keep them honest. Forcing the Patriots to not load the box to shut down Ray Rice is imperative. He will be the reason the Ravens win or lose. He must be productive and keep Tom Brady and the Patriot offense on the sidelines. If he can catch screens out of the backfield and help open the passing game it only increases the Ravens odds of winning.

The other factor for a Raven victory will be their defenses ability to put pressure on Tom Brady. Allowing Brady time to find his receivers will only result in points being scored against you and a long day for your defense.

The Patriots must get their tight ends involved early and often to win this game. Rob Gronkowsi and Aaron Hernandez have been huge for the Patriots all season. They give the offense a dynamic that is hard for defenses to match up with. They are too big for corners and safeties but too fast for linebackers to keep up with.  Their ability to stretch the field and allow Wes Welker to operate underneath has kept the Patriot defense explosive all season. The one team that can cover all their weapons is the Ravens. They have fast linebackers that not only have the ability to stay with the patriot tight ends but also have the ability to put pressure on Tom Brady combined with Haloti Ngata and the front four. This pressure will allow Ed Reed and the Ravens secondary to make plays on the back end. The secondary must come up big with plays against Tom Brady.

Ed Reed will be a question mark; he injured his ankle late in their first round matchup versus the Houston Texans and will not be at full strength. Its very important he not only plays but he plays well.

This game will come down to which offense can stay on the field. The Ravens ability to keep their offense on the field and keep Brady on the sidelines will be a key to success. With Tom Brady on the field and their offense rolling, the Ravens wont be able to keep pace and the final score will be lopsided. That said I think the Ravens will be effective running the ball and be able to make enough plays on defense to win this game. In a tight game that will come down to the fourth quarter, the Ravens will score a late touchdown and win.

 

Ravens 34 Patriots 24

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Recap: Divisional Playoffs.

January 16th, 2012

In a huge football weekend that had so much potential, The NFL Divisional Playoffs did not disappoint. The playoffs started off hot Saturday afternoon and continued the momentum through the weekend.

In what was by far the best game of the weekend, the 49ers and Saints gave everyone a great game that ended in the final seconds. The 49ers jumped out to an early 17-0 lead thanks to Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson creating turnovers getting the 49er offense on the field. It was a good thing the Niners broke out to an early lead because you knew Drew Brees and the Saints offense had a big game in them and had a ability to come back, like they had shown the week before against Detroit. The one thing the 49ers did that made a huge difference for them was scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals. The Niners tendency for settling for field goals had kept games to close during the regular season.

The forgotten Tight end Vernon Davis reestablished himself as one of the best in the league with Jimmy Graham, who was standing on the other sideline and Rob Gronkowski running away with the title. Both Graham and Davis made huge plays, put up ridiculous numbers and both scored late to give their team a lead. But Davis had the biggest catch of the game that all but sealed the game with less than 10 seconds remaining. Finishing with 7 catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns, Davis made plays when it mattered most. Saying that I feel like I am burying the lead with the game Alex Smith played.

Alex Smith didn’t get any credit this season, where his numbers were bleak in comparison to Rodgers, Brees and Brady. He lead the 49ers to a 13-3 regular season, locking up the #2 seed in the NFC and lead to the 49ers hosting the Saints which was a huge advantage. Alex Smith grew up Saturday. Alex was the reason the 49ers won the game. He threw for 300 yards with 3 touchdowns and ran for another that was a dynamic play from 28 yards out that was needed with 49er offense had become stagnant. And with the game winner, in a situation where it looked like the 49ers would settle for a game tying field goal and head to over time, Harbaugh believed in Alex and put the ball in his hand to win the game, and Alex came through.

In the late game Saturday night, the Tebow run came to an end. Tom Brady and the patriots looked liked a well-oiled machine. Phil Simms was on point when he pointed out the Broncos should run the ball and kill the clock when down 21-7. The Broncos were out of sync and were in danger of having no shot of a coming back. The Broncos proceeded to throw the ball and not get first downs. The Broncos punted on three straight possessions, which lead to 14 Patriot points and went into the half down 35-7. The Patriots dominated the second half, scored another 10 points and won easily 45-10.

On Sunday morning, in the game nobody seemed to be talking about, The Ravens and Texans game was an ugly, slugfest that was dominated on the defensive side of the ball. TJ Yates looked like the third string quarterback that he had came into the season as. Arian Foster looked dominant with his 132 yards and a touchdown. Turnovers lead to the downfall of Houston between Yates’ 3 interceptions and Jacoby Jones muffed punt. The Texans looked like the better team and had Matt Schaub played, that could have been a different game.

The Packers and Giants provided a nice bookend to an excellent weekend of football. The final score doesn’t show how close of a game it was. Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense didn’t look as dialed in as they had all season. A lot of the credit needs to go the Giants front four. They were able to provide pressure and get to Rodgers, including a big forced fumble. The front fours ability to apply pressure, also gave the secondary, which had difficulties this season an ability to do enough to win. Eli Manning made all the throws at the right moment. Hakeem Nicks came up huge and scored a touchdown at the end of the first half, on the Hail Mary that seemed to be the nail in the packer coffin.

Coming away from the weekend, I never thought Eli Manning and Alex Smith would outplay their counterparts in Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, respectively. They were the better quarterbacks this weekend and showed that even in the new NFL with high flying offenses, if your defense cant make plays and slow down the other team your not winning. The Defense carried 3 of the 4 teams this weekend. I still have a lot of research to do and information to digest before I can unveil my picks for Sunday. Needless to say I’m pumped for another great set of games.

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Divisional Round Preview

January 13th, 2012

49ers vs Saints

In a compelling match up that faces a dynamic, high-powered offense versus one of the best defenses in the NFL, that didn’t allow a rushing touchdown until week 15, 49ers and the Saints is a great start to the divisional round games. While the saints have proven to be a high flying offense, most of their games have came indoors. The Saints are a different team outside and weather will affect the outcome of this game. While the weather will be a mild 60 degrees, swirling winds at candlestick will be issue and the 49ers ability to run the ball will have a huge advantage. The Niners will be able to control the clock with the running game, put Alex Smith in 3rd and manageable situations and use the best special teams in the league to their advantage. The Saints will be facing long fields all day as long as the Niners don’t make turnovers on their own half of the field. Drew Brees won’t give your defense many opportunities to make a play but as the Lions can attest to you will get a couple and you need to take advantage. With a huge game from Frank Gore and a big play from the defense or special teams the Niners will do enough to keep it low scoring and get a win.

Niners 23 Saints 17

 

Patriot’s vs Broncos

This game is going to look much like the one played at mile high a month or so ago. As much as id like to say Tebow will be great or point to weird things happening in the Saturday night games during the divisional round, Brady and company will dominate this game. The Broncos played as well as they could last week and had to go to overtime with a big lead late in the game to win. Roethlisberger was on one leg much of the game and no Pouncey, Mendenhall and Ryan Clark really hurt Big Ben and the Steelers. Tebow will probably make a few plays and make game the not a total domination. That said the Patriots will dominate the game and win going away.

Patriots 37 Broncos 13

 

Ravens vs Texans

This was by far the hardest game for me to get a sense for. The biggest key for the game will be Ray Rice. If Ray Rice plays well and is a big part of the Ravens offense, this game will get out of hand quickly. However if Brian Cushing, Mario Williams and the Texans defense plays like they can it might be a much close game that the 9-point spread would indicate. If I am a Ravens fan, the thought of Joe Flacco having to make a play late scares me. While he has done it before, in big spots, like versus Pittsburgh, the Texans defense has been dominant all season and I see them making a big play when it matters most. I think Ray Rice shows up, the Ravens defense shows up and give the home crowd a reason to be loud all game.

Ravens 30 Texans 19

 

Packers vs Giants

This is the game I am most intrigued by. I love the thought of two high-powered offenses, and yes I realize Eli Manning plays quarterback for the Giants. Eli has been great this season. With the emergence of Victor Cruz and his big play ability the Giants offense has gained a new dimension that has made them more dynamic and high powered. Jake Ballard has step into the role vacated by Kevin Boss and has not missed a beat. The Giants are also used to playing outside in cold and windy conditions. Brandon Jacobs has returned to form and combined with Ahmad Bradshaw gives the dual attack from the running game that helped them get to the super bowl in 2008. All that said, they are playing the defending world champions at home, where Aaron Rodgers has been unstoppable with a bevy of options that will pose a huge issue for the giants weak secondary. It will come down to the Giants front four and their ability to get to Rodgers. If they can rush only four and drop 7 I love the Giants chances. That said in a high scoring game where a defensive play will change this game, I think the Giants get a late sack fumble and the Giants pull it out.

Giants 37 Packers 35

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Kobe and the Lakers

January 12th, 2012

With Kobe dropping 40 again, in back to back nights, youd think this would be a good thing for the Lakers and a possible return to vintage Kobe.However needing huge performances versus Phoenix and needing overtime to beat the Jazz, this is proving to be a problem for the Lakers. The Lakers inability to score will be a problem all season. Kobe has too many miles and too many games played to carry this team especially in a shortened season with many back to backs and 3 games in 4 nights ahead. Kobe will need more help this season for the Lakers to make the Playoffs and be a serious contender.

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Barry Larkin: The Hall of Fame class of 2012

January 11th, 2012

Congratulations Barry Larkin! I guess the third time really is the charm. On this third time on the ballot, Barry Larkin finally got enough of the vote to become elected in into the Baseball Hal of Fame. In a result I did not see coming, the Baseball Writers got it right. As a baseball fan I loved watching Barry Larkin play. Defensively he was awesome and dynamic. Offensively while not a power guy, Larkin always had a good average and rarely struck out. He was a great team guy and everyone around baseball seemed to think highly of him. I wasn’t sure this would be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. It was a down year for candidates and the next year will bring interesting decisions for baseball writers, guys like Larkin will get backed up and potentially not make it. Each writer with a vote can vote up to ten players each year. Each player must get at least 5% of the vote to stay on the ballot and get at least 75% of the vote become elected.

Staring next year the “Super 6” will become Hall of Fame eligible. The “Super 6” includes the faces of the steroid generation, whether they tested positive or not they are permanently linked. The “Super 6” includes Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling, and Mark Mcgwire. Along with the 6, guys like Mike Piazza, who is arguably the greatest hitting catcher of all time, Jeff Bagwell who put up great numbers but because of his physical growth and wearing a baggy jersey, some believe he used some sort of performance enhancer. It also doesn’t help Bagwell that he played with Ken Camanitti who is an admitted user. These guys are linked in with group and give writers a serious quandary. What do you do with a player that has taken PED’s or is believed to have taken PED’s?

There are three basic thoughts for the majority of writers. Either you look directly at the numbers and say this guy is a Hall of Famer. The Second approach is the exact opposite, if you think they used PED’s you don’t vote for them at all. The third approach, which I think features more writer than one might think is to take it on a case by case basis. The third strategy is the one that will cause issues. This is putting the judgment on the writer, a having them assume that the player was a Hall of Famer before PED’s such as Bonds and Clemens. The writer is forced to pick an arbitrary date when the player might have started taking PEDS and look at their stats previous to that date.

The three camps will create a backlog in getting players in the Hall of Fame. Most of the Super 6 will not get enough votes to get in and will get too many to get taken off the ballot. This just goes into a deeper problem that is the Hall of Fame voting process. There are 590 baseball writers with a Hall of Fame vote. There is a contingent that will refuse to vote someone simply because its that players first time on the ballot. So many of the voters hold grudges against players or have a great memory of the player because of interactions when they were players that goes into how they vote.

The Baseball Hall of Fame should have a committee that at least sets the standards if not does the electing, If if player is a Hall of Famer then they should get in on the first go around and if not then they don’t get in. A player is a Hall of Famer or not, there is not grey area where after three years of eligibility they become a Hall of Famer. They did not put up new stats after retiring, what has changed. It plays into the thought of when a memory gets farther away your tend to remember the good things and less of the bad. A Hall of Fame standards committee erases the emotion, and looks at a player’s body of work. If they did enough to get in then they are hall of famers, and if not it takes nothing away from there career but they’re not amongst the elite of elite.

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Big build up for a big let down

January 10th, 2012

In a game that had so much potential, LSU vs Alabama had all the makings of an epic slugfest between two defenses of historic proportion. As soon as there game on November 5th ended, fans and media alike were calling for a rematch. They were clearly the two best teams competing for the title in the best conference in College Football.

From the start of the game you could tell this game was going to end very differently. I’m not really sure happened to LSU after they trounced Arkansas and Georgia, but the team that showed up last night was not the same team. Whether LSU was vastly over confident or under prepared last night, the team that walked on the field was timid and was not ready to be on that stage. Alabama on the other hand looked driven and ready. A month of preparation for Nick Saban is too much for any coach, even one as talented as Les Miles. Saban had his team prepared, his defense was dialed in and his offense made Tyrann Mathieu and the LSU defense look foolish.

LSU needed a big play from its defense or punt return to win. Tyrann Mathieu looked lost on the field and made poor decisions that were not characteristic of the Heisman trophy finalist. And if not for the long run late in the 4th quarter, with the game well in hand, Trent Richardson’s game did not live up to the standards that he had set throughout the season. This only makes the Alabama victory more impressive. AJ McCarron made the right decisions at the right moments, moved the ball and put his team in a spot to win the game.

Jordan Jefferson play during the BCS title game was unimpressive and lacking. His throws were off target and continued to make the wrong decisions on option runs. He couldn’t get the LSU offense across the midfield till late in the 4th quarter with the game out of reach. With Jarrett Lee sitting on the sidelines who looked so impressive with Jefferson suspended early in the season, I don’t understand why Miles didn’t let Lee get some run. The running attack was being ineffective and with Jefferson missing receivers, Jarrett could have given Alabama something else to think about.

One, if not both of these teams will be in discussion this time next year. LSU has a stellar defense with many of its starters returning. Mathieu will be returning and has the chance to have another stellar season. If Jefferson can evolve and make better decisions, LSU will be scary once again. LSU did finish 13-1 and played really well all season until last night. Alabama will be competitive again next season. Nick Saban recruits well and has many starters returning, however losing Trent Richardson will hurt. And with that another college football season is in the books.

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The Sacramento Kings: A Quandry

January 5th, 2012

The Sacramento Kings are a frustrating team to watch and that seems to have no direction both on and off the court. Talent wise they seem to have enough to be competitive not for a title but as a 8th seed and especially in a condensed season where athletic ability and fresh legs are at a premium.

Tyreke Evans was dynamic playmaker that took over games in his rookie season. Over the past two years he has done nothing but regress. I don’t know if he has yet to recover from the foot injuries that plagued him all last season or a lack of commitment in the off season. He continues to settle for long jumpers, shows no desire to drive to the hole and when he does, he seemingly makes no attempt at scoring, instead flailing at the cup and looking for a foul call. Tyreke is lost on the court and needs decide whether he is a facilitator or wants to take over games and score.

The complimentary piece that was supposed to go along with Tyreke, Demarcus Cousins has shown flashes but is still really raw. That said he continues to show through his latest outburst and trade demands that mentally and emotionally he has an inability to lead a team and is a huge part of why he dropped to the 5th overall pick in the 2010 NBA draft.

But after watching Demarcus make Joakim Noah, who is regarded as the best defensive big man behind Dwight Howard, look foolish on plays, shows flashes of what could be.  Demarcus shows you what kind of player he could be. The frustration sets in when there is a lack of consistent effort on the par t of Cousins.

Demarcus continues to catch the ball at the top of the key, which could be the game plan in Westphal’s offense. He will repost within the same position, but can barely get past the free throw line. A player of his size and athletic ability should be able to get to cup consistently. He has a inability to finish above the rim on a consistent basis as well. Although Demarcus is only assisted on 30% of his attempts at the hoop, by far the worst of any big man and almost 20 percentage points behind his closest competition Zach Randolph. I can’t blame Demarcus fully for his inconsistency. The lack of ability for his teammates to get him the ball in a position to be effective is huge problem and can be very frustrating for Cousins. Especially coming from Kentucky where he could do what he wanted to on the court and had John Wall breaking down the defense and getting Cousins good looks.

I think the biggest reason for the lack of success for the Kings falls on Paul Westphal. His rotations and inexplicable reasons for playing certain players continue to lead to a stagnant offense and forced jump shots. He has this love for playing 3 guys who are all 6’6”, in Chuck Hayes, John Salmons and Tyreke.  While Chuck Hayes is a solid rebounder and good post defender who works well alongside Cousins, the 3 guards played do not fit well with the frontcourt. They have no one to space the floor and hit jumpers or a point guard who can facilitate and distribute. Marcus Thornton is a nice player who can get hot and score in chunks. The problem lies in Thornton and Tyreke are both dominate the ball type players. They dribble the air out of the ball, take terrible shots and create a stagnant offense. Pairing these guys with John Salmons who is bad defensively and takes a lot of pull up jumpers, and when you are shooting below 35% from the field, these shots lead to run outs fro the other team and hurt the Kings poor transition defense.

In Westphal’s scheme, Donte Green gets run at the end of the first half with around a minute to go. If he gets shots to go, Westphal will give him minutes in the second half. If he isn’t on, he might see a few seconds or come in during a blow out. This forces Donte to take bad shots and be way to aggressive offensively. Donte isn’t a superstar by any means but he provides a slasher and a guy who can create shots and hit the corner threes giving the offense a different dynamic.

 

So what do the kings do? The Kings are in a quandary. Do you trade a budding superstar who is a head case and provides a post presence or trade Tyreke Evans who provides that same thing as Marcus Thornton, who the kings just signed to a new deal and the Kings like going forward? Tyreke will get the most in return of anyone not named Demarcus Cousins. The Kings need a true point guard who can get players the ball in a spot to be effective and space the floor.

The problem lies in what is a legitimate haul the kings can get? As much as I’d like to say they can get Rajon Rondo or Russell Westbrook or Deron Williams. NBA GM’s see what I’m seeing with Tyreke’s inefficiencies. The kings are great at giving up too much for nothing in return and wouldn’t be shocked if they trade Evans and cousins for cap relief, with Dwight Howard and Deron Williams hitting free agency, but there is almost no chance the Maloof pony up or any big name free agent would come to Sacramento. I like the moving something for Deron Williams but your going to have to hope he wants to stay. You wont get a contract guarantee for Williams. Package Evans, a 1st round pick and an expiring contract such as Donte Green or Jason Thompson or move Evans or Cousins with Francisco Garcia and get less in return with the ability to create cap room. With the first scenario you should get a decent haul especially if a team thinks highly of Greene as a slasher/high energy guy or Thompson as a solid rotation big man that can help a contender. From the Kings prospective I like a deal that gets a Darren collision and Paul George from Indiana or getting Kevin Love and either Luke Ridnour or Wayne Ellington. And If somehow a Martell Webster for Francisco Garcia aspect can get thrown in, the trade could make a lot of sense for both teams.

The second thing that must be done is, what the Kings have done while I was finishing this piece. The Kings fired Paul Westphal and named Keith Smart the interim coach. Was the move done because ownership didn’t like the direction of the Kings on the floor or to satisfy and the Kings young star that seems to be clashing with Westphal on a consistent basis? The Kings are seemingly making strides to improve the team. I’m curious to see where Keith Smart takes this team over the rest of the season.

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